Eastern Caribbean Weather Outlook March 2026

Latest satellite imagery and important NHC reports for the Eastern Caribbean.

GOES-16 IR Caribbean. Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated: 2026-03-01 12:40 PM AST. 10 min ago

Eastern Caribbean Forecast

Updated: 2026-03-01 02:49 AST 10 hours ago

The Atlantic high pressure system will be the main feature affecting conditions across the Eastern Caribbean over the next 24 hours. From Puerto Rico southwards to Trinidad and Tobago, shallow pockets of low level moisture will continue to move across the area coupled with instability within a moderate to fresh trade wind flow, will result in fair to partly cloudy skies with at most a moderate chance of brief passing showers. Meanwhile, the presence of the Saharan dust will persist in varying concentrations.

Winds:  East at 19 to 37 km/h or 12 to 23 mph with possible gusts to 56 km/h or 35 mph.

Seas:  2.1 to 3.0 metres or 7 to 10 feet. Small craft and high surf advisories remain in effect for islands across the Eastern Caribbean.

Forecaster: Jaleel Jacobs — A daily forecast issued by the Antigua & Barbuda Met Office, covering the Eastern Caribbean islands.

NHC Regional Weather Summary

Issued for: 2026-03-01 8:15 AM AST 4 hrs ago

The NHC issues this summary four times daily (around 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT). The “Issued for” time may be ahead of the current time as it covers the upcoming forecast period.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC.

Special Features

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from 31N74W to SE Florida. A band of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is ahead of the front between 67W-78W. A strong high pressure of 1033 mb situated SW of the Azores near 33N38W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.

This system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 60W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

GOES East Infrared satellite view of the Eastern Caribbean

Image courtesy of NOAA GOES via NASA/MSFC.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas tonight and from 31N62W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning as it weakens. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early this week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken.

Fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.

NHC Forecaster: Delgado

Regional Satellite Animations

Updated: 2026-03-01 12:50 PM AST just now

These satellite animations cover the Eastern Caribbean and the full tropical Atlantic from the West African coast to the Caribbean Sea. Each animation starts as a still image. Click play to start.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean

An enhanced infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) focused on the Eastern Caribbean. Infrared imagery detects heat radiating from cloud tops — the colder (and therefore higher) a cloud top, the more likely it is producing heavy rain or thunderstorms. Bright blue-green and white areas indicate very cold, tall cloud tops associated with active convection, while grey tones show lower, warmer clouds or clear skies. This view is particularly useful at night when visible imagery is unavailable, and for spotting developing thunderstorm clusters that could organise into tropical disturbances.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic

A wider infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) covering the tropical Atlantic from the Eastern Caribbean to the West African coast. This zoomed-in view makes it easier to track individual cloud clusters and tropical waves as they cross the Atlantic — the classic path toward the Caribbean during hurricane season. The colour scale highlights cold, high cloud tops in blue-green and white (indicating deep convection and potential storm development), while warmer grey tones represent lower clouds or clear skies.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Sandwich

Sandwich imagery layers visible and infrared satellite data to reveal both cloud structure and cloud-top temperatures simultaneously. Bright white areas indicate tall, cold cloud tops — a sign of deep convection and active thunderstorm development. Darker, warmer tones represent low-level or thin clouds. This view is particularly useful for identifying intense weather activity and distinguishing between harmless fair-weather clouds and towering storm systems that may develop into tropical disturbances.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Sandwich – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor

GeoColor imagery shows the Earth as it appears to the human eye during the day, with enhanced city lights and infrared cloud detection at night. This wide-angle view stretches from the West African coast to the Caribbean, making it ideal for tracking tropical waves as they move westward across the Atlantic — the classic path that can lead to tropical storm and hurricane development during the season. You can also observe large-scale cloud patterns, the Saharan dust layer (appears as a hazy brownish tint), and the overall state of the tropical Atlantic.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

GOES‑19 Caribbean Sector – Geocolor

The same GeoColor imagery as above, but zoomed in on the Caribbean region. The tighter framing provides more detail on local cloud formations, approaching weather systems, and how conditions are evolving directly over the Eastern Caribbean islands. Useful for monitoring nearby showers and thunderstorms, identifying incoming weather changes, and observing patterns such as the trade wind cumulus, Saharan dust haze, and developing convective clusters that the wider Atlantic view may not show as clearly.

GOES‑19 Caribbean Sector – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

Regional Satellite Images

Updated: 2026-03-01 12:50 PM AST just now

Saharan Air Layer – Natural Color

A natural-colour satellite view of the tropical Atlantic highlighting the Saharan Air Layer. Dust appears as a hazy tan or brownish plume stretching westward from the African coast across the ocean. Unlike the specialised RGB composites below, this image shows the atmosphere roughly as the human eye would see it from space, making it intuitive for spotting large-scale dust outbreaks. Dense dust reduces visibility and gives the sky a milky appearance over affected areas.

Saharan Air Layer natural color satellite image showing dust plumes across the tropical Atlantic

Image courtesy of UW-CIMSS/SSEC and NOAA.

Saharan Air Layer – Dust Tracker

This split-window satellite product is specifically designed to track Saharan dust plumes as they travel westward across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean. The colour scale ranges from yellow (moderate dry air or dust) through orange to red (dense Saharan Air Layer). Grey and white areas indicate clouds. Saharan dust affects the Caribbean in two important ways: it degrades air quality, aggravating respiratory conditions such as asthma and allergies, and it suppresses tropical cyclone development by introducing dry, stable air and increasing wind shear. During hurricane season, heavy dust outbreaks often coincide with quieter tropical activity — tracking dust movement can help indicate when conditions are less favourable for storm formation.

Saharan Air Layer split-window dust tracker showing dust plumes across the tropical Atlantic

Image courtesy of UW-CIMSS/SSEC and NOAA.

GOES RGB Caribbean – Dust

This specialised RGB (Red-Green-Blue) composite highlights Saharan dust plumes travelling westward across the Atlantic into the Caribbean. Dust typically appears as bright pink or magenta areas, while clouds show as darker red or brown tones and clear sky appears as a deep blue-black. Saharan dust affects the Caribbean in two important ways: it degrades air quality, aggravating respiratory conditions such as asthma and allergies, and it suppresses tropical cyclone development by introducing dry, stable air and increasing wind shear that disrupts storm organisation. During hurricane season, heavy dust outbreaks often coincide with quieter tropical activity, so tracking dust movement can help indicate when conditions are less favourable for storm formation. The image can also reveal other atmospheric features such as volcanic aerosols and wildfire smoke.

Dust plume Low, water cloud Desert surface Mid, thick clouds Mid, thin cloud Cold, thick clouds High, thin ice clouds Very thin clouds (Dust at night appears as purple shades below 3 km)

GOES Dust RGB satellite image of the Caribbean showing Saharan dust plumes and atmospheric aerosols

Image courtesy of NOAA.

NHC Caribbean Forecast Maps

Updated: 2026-03-01 12:05 PM AST 45 min ago

Wind and wave charts are 12-hour forecasts updated several times daily. Sea surface temperature data is typically delayed 1–2 days from the source even when the image is refreshed recently.

Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast

Shows predicted wind speeds across the Caribbean basin for the next 12 hours. The colour-filled regions use a rainbow scale — purple and blue shades represent lighter winds, greens and yellows indicate moderate winds, and orange to red areas signal the strongest winds. The colour bar along the top of the chart shows the wind speed values in knots. Use this chart to anticipate incoming wind changes, assess conditions for maritime travel, or gauge how a developing weather system may affect wind patterns in your area.

Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean 12-hr surface analysis

A snapshot of current atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean, showing pressure systems (highs and lows), fronts, troughs, and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These features drive day-to-day weather — a passing trough can bring unsettled conditions and showers, while a strong high-pressure ridge typically means settled, drier weather. Look for tightly packed isobars (pressure lines), which indicate areas of stronger winds. Tropical waves appear as dashed lines moving westward and are often the seeds of tropical storm development during hurricane season.

Caribbean 12-hr surface analysis – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean 12-hr wave height forecast

Displays predicted significant wave heights across the Atlantic and Caribbean for the next 12 hours. Black contour lines connect areas of equal wave height, with numbers labelling the height in feet. Lines spaced closely together indicate a steep change in sea conditions over a short distance. Useful for assessing sea conditions for boating, fishing, and coastal activities, and for tracking swells generated by distant storms. During hurricane season, a rapid increase in wave heights in a particular area may indicate an approaching or intensifying tropical system.

Caribbean 12-hr wave height forecast – NHC/TAFB forecast map

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Caribbean Sea Surface Temps - Last 30 days

Shows how ocean surface temperatures have changed across the Caribbean over the past 30 days. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are one of the most important factors in tropical cyclone development — waters above 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) provide the heat energy that fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. The warmer and deeper the warm water layer, the more conducive conditions become for storm formation and rapid intensification. During hurricane season, watch for unusually warm patches (deep reds and oranges), which can signal areas where approaching storms may strengthen significantly. Outside of hurricane season, SST trends help indicate the onset of warmer waters and the transition into the active period.

Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature 30-day animation (click play to start)

Animation courtesy of NOAA.

Additional Weather Imagery

Updated: 2026-03-01 12:46 PM AST 4 min ago

Additional satellite imagery and analysis products from NASA SPoRT.

3-Hour Rainfall Accumulation – Caribbean

Estimated rainfall accumulation over the past 3 hours across the Caribbean, derived from NASA IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) early-run data. The colour scale shows rainfall intensity — green and yellow shades indicate light to moderate rain, while orange and red areas represent heavier precipitation. This near-real-time product is useful for identifying active rain bands, tropical wave moisture, and convective clusters.

3-Hour Rainfall Accumulation – Caribbean

Image courtesy of NASA SPoRT.

Sea Surface Temperature – 7-day

Sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Atlantic Main Development Region, where the majority of Cape Verde-type hurricanes form and intensify. Waters warmer than 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) provide the energy needed to sustain tropical cyclones. The warmer and deeper the warm water pool, the greater the potential for rapid intensification. During hurricane season, this image helps identify pockets of anomalously warm water that could fuel approaching tropical disturbances.

Sea Surface Temperature – 7-day

Image courtesy of NASA SPoRT.

The two "visible band" animations below only include frames captured during daylight hours. Nighttime frames appear dark and are excluded.

GOES East Visible – Leeward Islands

A high-resolution visible satellite animation from GOES East (Band 2, 0.64 µm) centred on the Leeward Islands. Visible imagery shows clouds as the human eye would see them from space — bright white areas are thick clouds likely producing showers, while thin wispy clouds appear grey. This band offers the sharpest detail of any GOES channel, making it excellent for tracking individual shower cells, sea breeze boundaries, and developing convective systems. Visible imagery is only available during daytime hours.

GOES East Visible – Leeward Islands – satellite animation (click play to start)

Image courtesy of NASA SPoRT/MSFC.

GOES East Visible – Windward Islands

A high-resolution visible satellite animation from GOES East (Band 2, 0.64 µm) centred on the Windward Islands. Same technology as above but framed to show the southern Eastern Caribbean, useful for monitoring approaching weather from the south and east, including interaction of tropical waves with the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Only available during daytime.

GOES East Visible – Windward Islands – satellite animation (click play to start)

Image courtesy of NASA SPoRT/MSFC.

Information on this page is updated according to the National Hurricane Center’s bulletin schedule. Satellite imagery refreshes approximately every 10 minutes. The Weather Summary for our Islands is updated at least daily, year‑round, and more frequently whenever new discussions are issued. The Tropical Weather Outlook section follows the NHC’s scheduled outlooks (four times daily from May 15 to November 30) and is hidden during the off‑season unless the NHC issues a special outlook.