GOES-16 IR Caribbean, updated every ~10 min (Image courtesy of NOAA - 2025-10-10 7:40 AM AST).
Antigua Met Office Forecast
Note: Because the Leeward Islands sit in the center of the Eastern Caribbean, the Antigua & Barbuda Met Office provides expert analysis of the same tropical waves, ridges, and Saharan dust plumes that steer weather across most of our islands.
Last updated: 2025-10-08 23:40 AST
Generally partly cloudy skies persisted across the area this evening. Few echoes were also noted on radar images as instability and available moisture made way for few showers across the area this evening. Latest model projections are indicating a similar weather pattern for the next 24 hrs as available moisture and instability continue to produce periods of showers and possible thunderstorms across portions of the area. Sea conditions will begin to deteriorate by tomorrow and these are consistent with the latest issued forecast.
Forecaster: Cecil Matthew
NHC Regional Weather Summary
Issued for: 2025-10-10 8:15 AM AST
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC.
Special Features
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 19.2N 62.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 70 nm NNE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Seas are peaking near 21 ft (6 M) just northeast of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 12N to 25N and between 57W and 64W. Heavy downpours are impacting the Lesser Antilles.
Jerry is moving toward the NW and a turn toward the north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward to north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to the north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from the islands later today. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend.
Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information.
Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast (Image courtesy of NOAA).
Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency for details.
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W, south of 20N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 14N and between 30W and 48W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the south-central Caribbean.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found within 120 nm of the trough axis.
Atlantic Ocean
Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Jerry located near the Northern Leeward Islands.
Caribbean surface analysis (Image courtesy of NOAA).
A stationary front is analyzed off NE Florida and satellite imagery depict strong showers and thunderstorms west of 74W, affecting parts of Florida and the NW Bahamas. A tightening pressure gradient result in fresh to strong easterly winds north of 26N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft.
Farther east, a surface trough is along 66W and north of 23N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north of 23N and between 56W and 68W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system located in the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds moderate to locally rough seas are present south of 22N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally strong seas are found east of 20N and north of 20N.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry is near 19.2N 62.5W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Jerry will move to 20.9N 63.3W this afternoon, 23.3N 63.4W Sat morning, 25.9N 63.0W Sat afternoon, 28.4N 62.5W Sun morning, 30.5N 61.8W Sun afternoon, and 31.6N 60.3W Mon morning.
Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to the 31.6N 56.7W early Tue. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop offshore of north-central Florida today and move northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are occurring north of the Bahamas and west of 70W.
A frontal trough will develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas from Sat through Sun morning.
NHC Forecaster: Delgado
Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from 1 June to 30 November, with special outlooks issued at any time as conditions warrant. The graphic displays all currently active tropical cyclones, and disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential over the next five days.
Last updated: 2025-10-10 8:00 AM AST
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$
Regional Satellite Animations
These satellite animations provide a near-real-time look at the tropical Atlantic every 10 minutes, offering both a wide-angle view, from the West African coast to the Eastern Caribbean, and a more focused view of our region.
For a snapshot view of what’s near our Eastern Caribbean islands, view the main image at the top of this page and also the home page to see clouds directly overhead.
To reduce data, each animation loads as a still image. Click any image below to play the satellite animation.
GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Sandwich
GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor
GOES‑19 Caribbean Sector – Geocolor
Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature – 30‑day Animation
GOES RGB Caribbean - Dust (opens in a new window)
Information on this page is updated according to the National Hurricane Center’s bulletin schedule. Satellite imagery refreshes approximately every 10 minutes. The Weather Summary for our Islands is updated at least daily, year‑round, and more frequently whenever new discussions are issued. The Tropical Weather Outlook section follows the NHC’s scheduled outlooks (four times daily from June 1 to November 30) and is checked daily during the off‑season for special updates.