GOES-16 IR Caribbean, updated every ~10 min (Image courtesy of NOAA - 2025-08-25 5:50 PM AST).
Weather Summary for our Islands
Issued for: 2025-08-25 2:15 PM AST
Tropical Weather Discussion for Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.
Tropical Waves
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 21W from 17N southward, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted with this system from 07N-12N between 18W-25W.
A new tropical wave over the central Atlantic has been analyzed near 46W, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave originated as a mid-latitude upper-level feature, which advected into the tradewinds. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave.
A Caribbean tropical wave has been analyzed along 61W, from 22N southward into Venezuela, to near the border of eastern Venezuela and Guyana, moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-17N between 63W-71W.
Caribbean Sea
A moderate pressure gradient between ridging along 27N and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to fresh trades over most of the Caribbean, with strong trades just north of Colombia. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In addition to the convection in the eastern Caribbean due to a tropical wave, there are two additional areas of deep convection associated with a tropical wave over Central America and the eastern Pacific as well as an upper-level divergent pattern.
Caribbean 12-hr wind forecast (Image courtesy of NOAA).
There is scattered moderate convection from 16N-21N west of 80W. There is also scattered moderate convection south of 11N west of 80W in association with Caribbean extension of the monsoon trough of the eastern Pacific.
For the forecast, the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has become less organized since yesterday, and further development is not anticipated as it moves quickly westward during the next few days. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will be associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central Caribbean on Tue. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Tue night.
NW to N swell will continue to propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages through at least today.
Atlantic Ocean
A weak pressure gradient between a 1031 mb Azores High near 41N44W and lower pressure near the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only gentle to moderate trades over most of the tropical north Atlantic waters. The exception is fresh to strong southwesterlies with seas to 9 ft ahead of a weak cold front that extends from 31N74W to 29N78W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring with this cold front north of 27N west of 73W.
Near the coast of West Africa, the NE winds are fresh to strong north of 18N. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell north of 23N between 25W-50W, 8-9 ft just just east of the Windward Islands on the back side of the Caribbean tropical wave, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary will linger off the SE U.S. coast likely through Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are expected SE of the front through this evening. A ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast region.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late this afternoon through Tue night. Meanwhile, decaying rough northerly swell will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters through today.
NHC Forecaster: Landsea
Caribbean surface analysis (Image courtesy of NOAA).
Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from 1 June to 30 November, with special outlooks issued at any time as conditions warrant. The graphic displays all currently active tropical cyclones, and disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential over the next five days.
Last updated: 2025-08-25 2:00 PM AST
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$
For additional information and graphics, visit nhc.noaa.gov.
Information on this page is updated according to the National Hurricane Center’s bulletin schedule. Satellite imagery refreshes approximately every 10 minutes. The Weather Summary for our Islands is updated at least daily, year‑round, and more frequently whenever new discussions are issued. The Tropical Weather Outlook section follows the NHC’s scheduled outlooks (four times daily from June 1 to November 30) and is checked daily during the off‑season for special updates.