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Eastern Caribbean Weather Outlook August 2026

Latest satellite imagery and important NHC reports for the Eastern Caribbean.

GOES-16 IR Caribbean. Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated: 2026-08-13 11:30 PM AST. 12 min ago

Eastern Caribbean Forecast

Updated: 2026-08-13 02:12 AST 21 hours ago

A weak line of moisture could lead to brief cloudy spells with a heightened chance of showers across portions of the Windward Islands, T&T and Barbados today, becoming mostly fair by tonight. Elsewhere across the eastern Caribbean we can expect mostly fair and hazy conditions as a dry and stable airmass continues to sit across the area during the next 24 hours.

Winds:  East-southeast at 19 to 33 km/h or 12 to 21 mph.

Seas:  1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet. Therefore small craft operators should continue to exercise caution.

Forecaster: Bernell Simon — A daily forecast issued by the Antigua & Barbuda Met Office, covering the Eastern Caribbean islands.

NHC Eastern Caribbean Outlook

Updated: 2026-08-13 6:25 PM AST 5 hrs ago

Tropical Wave AL92TW 838 mi east of Barbados See how close it is to the Eastern Caribbean Islands.See how close it is to your island. Open the live map ›
Tropical Atlantic surface analysis
Tropical Atlantic surface analysis (current conditions). Click to enlarge. Image courtesy of NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation. This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper- level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be decreasing.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

There is a low chance for tropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days.

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical wave with axis near 46W.

From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion, issued four times a day. The NHC labels each release with a scheduled cycle time (8:15 PM AST here), while the timestamp above shows when we received it. Based on satellite imagery through 6:00 PM AST.

— Forecaster: AL

NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook showing active cyclones and areas of development Tropical Wave AL92TW 838 mi east of Barbados See how close it is to the Eastern Caribbean Islands.See how close it is to your island. Open the live map ›

Image courtesy of NOAA. Updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from 15 May to 30 November, with special outlooks issued at any time as conditions warrant. The graphic displays all currently active tropical cyclones, and disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential over the next five days.

Updated: 2026-08-13 8:00 PM AST 3 hours ago

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to become less organized. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of development appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Atlantic storm names for 2026

  • Arthur AR-thur
  • Bertha BUR-thuh
  • Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl
  • Dolly DAH-lee
  • Edouard eh-DWARD
  • Fay fay
  • Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh
  • Hanna HAN-uh
  • Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs
  • Josephine JOH-seh-feen
  • Kyle KY-ull
  • Leah LEE-ah
  • Marco MAR-koe
  • Nana NA-na
  • Omar OH-mar
  • Paulette pawl-LET
  • Rene re-NAY
  • Sally SAL-ee
  • Teddy TEHD-ee
  • Vicky VIH-kee
  • Wilfred WILL-fred

Regional Satellite Animations

Updated: 2026-08-13 11:35 PM AST 6 min ago

These satellite animations cover the Eastern Caribbean and the full tropical Atlantic from the West African coast to the Caribbean Sea. Each animation starts as a still image. Click play to start.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean

An enhanced infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) focused on the Eastern Caribbean. Infrared imagery detects heat radiating from cloud tops — the colder (and therefore higher) a cloud top, the more likely it is producing heavy rain or thunderstorms. Bright blue-green and white areas indicate very cold, tall cloud tops associated with active convection, while grey tones show lower, warmer clouds or clear skies. This view is particularly useful at night when visible imagery is unavailable, and for spotting developing thunderstorm clusters that could organise into tropical disturbances.

GOES East Infrared – Caribbean – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic

A wider infrared satellite animation from GOES East (Band 13, 10.3 µm) covering the tropical Atlantic from the Eastern Caribbean to the West African coast. This zoomed-in view makes it easier to track individual cloud clusters and tropical waves as they cross the Atlantic — the classic path toward the Caribbean during hurricane season. The colour scale highlights cold, high cloud tops in blue-green and white (indicating deep convection and potential storm development), while warmer grey tones represent lower clouds or clear skies.

GOES East Infrared – Atlantic – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA/MSFC.

GOES‑19 Caribbean – Geocolor

GeoColor imagery shows the Earth as it appears to the human eye during the day, with enhanced city lights and infrared cloud detection at night. This close-up view of the Caribbean basin highlights cloud formations, approaching weather systems, and the Saharan dust layer (visible as a hazy brownish tint over open water). Useful for seeing the overall state of weather around the Eastern Caribbean islands at a glance.

GOES‑19 Caribbean – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor

GeoColor imagery shows the Earth as it appears to the human eye during the day, with enhanced city lights and infrared cloud detection at night. This wide-angle view stretches from the West African coast to the Caribbean, making it ideal for tracking tropical waves as they move westward across the Atlantic — the classic path that can lead to tropical storm and hurricane development during the season. You can also observe large-scale cloud patterns, the Saharan dust layer (appears as a hazy brownish tint), and the overall state of the tropical Atlantic.

GOES‑19 Tropical Atlantic – Geocolor – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NOAA.

The two "visible band" animations below only include frames captured during daylight hours. Nighttime frames appear dark and are excluded.

GOES East Visible – Leeward Islands

A high-resolution visible satellite animation from GOES East (Band 2, 0.64 µm) centred on the Leeward Islands. Visible imagery shows clouds as the human eye would see them from space — bright white areas are thick clouds likely producing showers, while thin wispy clouds appear grey. This band offers the sharpest detail of any GOES channel, making it excellent for tracking individual shower cells, sea breeze boundaries, and developing convective systems. Visible imagery is only available during daytime hours.

GOES East Visible – Leeward Islands – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA SPoRT/MSFC.

GOES East Visible – Windward Islands

A high-resolution visible satellite animation from GOES East (Band 2, 0.64 µm) centred on the Windward Islands. Same technology as above but framed to show the southern Eastern Caribbean, useful for monitoring approaching weather from the south and east, including interaction of tropical waves with the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Only available during daytime.

GOES East Visible – Windward Islands – satellite animation (click play to start)

Satellite animation courtesy of NASA SPoRT/MSFC.

Wind & Forecasts

Updated: 2026-08-13 10:20 PM AST 1 hour ago

The surface chart forecasts 24 hours ahead; the wind and wave charts cover the next 12 hours. Updated several times daily.

Winds are light to breezy across the Eastern Caribbean.

Readings updated: 2026-08-13 11:00 PM AST 42 min ago

Light to breezy (under 29 mph) Very breezy (29–33) Windy (34–38) Tropical storm (39–73) Hurricane (74+)

12-hour wind forecast

Shows predicted wind speeds across the Caribbean basin for the next 12 hours. The colour-filled regions use a rainbow scale — purple and blue shades represent lighter winds, greens and yellows indicate moderate winds, and orange to red areas signal the strongest winds. The colour bar along the top of the chart shows the wind speed values in knots. Use this chart to anticipate incoming wind changes, assess conditions for maritime travel, or gauge how a developing weather system may affect wind patterns in your area.

12-hour wind forecast (NHC/TAFB)

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Tropical Atlantic 12-hour wave height forecast

GFS-Wave significant wave height in metres (colour scale on the left) with 10-metre wind barbs, 12 hours from the issue time, across the tropical Atlantic from the Eastern Caribbean toward the West African coast. Cooler blues are calmer seas; greens, yellows and reds mark progressively higher waves. Useful for boating, fishing and coastal activities, and for tracking swells from distant storms. Click the image to enlarge it.

Tropical Atlantic 12-hour wave height forecast (NHC/TAFB)

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Tropical Atlantic 24-hour surface forecast

The forecast position of pressure systems (highs and lows), fronts, troughs, tropical waves (dashed lines tracking westward, often the seeds of tropical storms in season), the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, 24 hours from the issue time. Tightly packed isobars mean stronger winds. Click the image to enlarge it for easier reading.

Tropical Atlantic 24-hour surface forecast (NHC/TAFB)

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Rainfall Tracking

Satellite updated: 2026-08-13 5:00 PM AST 6 hours ago

Rainfall over the last 24 hours. Plus, 3-hour and 24-hour satellite precipitation maps.

Light rain across parts of the region, heaviest over Dominica, Martinique and Saint Lucia.

Readings updated: 2026-08-13 11:00 PM AST 42 min ago

Light under 25 mm, moderate 25–50, heavy 50–100, very heavy 100–200, flood 200+ mm.Light under 1 in, moderate 1–2, heavy 2–4, very heavy 4–8, flood 8+ in.

Satellite-derived rainfall for the Eastern Caribbean from NASA IMERG Early. Each map below opens as a still image showing the most recent total. Press play to step back through its history:

3-Hour Rainfall Totals (early) – Caribbean

3-hour rainfall totals from NASA IMERG Early, which runs about 4 hours behind real time — so this is the most recent view. Each frame is a 3-hour window covering the last 48 hours; press play to watch the rain bands move across the islands. Greens are lighter totals; yellow, orange and red mark progressively heavier rainfall (see the inch scale on the image).

3-Hour Rainfall Totals – Caribbean
5 PM AST

Animation courtesy of NASA SPoRT.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals (early) – Caribbean

24-hour rainfall totals from NASA IMERG Early. Each frame is a full day; press play to step through the past week, one day at a time, for a longer-range picture of where the heaviest rain fell. Blues and greens are lighter totals; yellow, orange and red mark progressively heavier accumulations (see the inch scale on the image).

24-Hour Rainfall Totals – Caribbean
Aug 13 · 8 AM AST

Animation courtesy of NASA SPoRT.

Saharan Dust

Updated: 2026-08-12 11:01 PM AST 1 day ago

Dust is currently elevated across the Eastern Caribbean, highest over Grenada and Anguilla.

Readings updated: 2026-08-13 11:00 PM AST 42 min ago

Readings show surface dust concentration in µg/m³, the dust at breathing level. Low under 25, elevated 25–49, high 50–149, very high 150–299, extreme 300+; the WHO daily guideline for coarse particles is 45 µg/m³. Behind the scenes, aerosol optical depth from the same forecast model watches for Saharan plumes higher in the atmosphere and powers the advance warnings. Data: CAMS (Copernicus) via Open-Meteo.

Saharan Air Layer – Past 3 Days

An animated satellite loop of the last three days of the Saharan Air Layer over the Eastern Caribbean and the approaches from the tropical Atlantic, from GOES-East. Yellow and orange shading marks dry, dusty Saharan air; deeper reds mean a denser airmass. Watch plumes enter from the eastern edge of the view and stream westward toward the islands. Because it senses the layer's dry air, it works day and night, though colour can show even when little dust reaches the surface, so pair it with the island readings above, which show what is actually reaching breathing level.

GOES-East Saharan Air Layer tracking animation for the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic covering the past three days (click play to start)

SAL tracking animation courtesy of UW-CIMSS and NOAA-HRD.

Sea Temperatures

Updated: 2026-08-13 11:40 PM AST 2 min ago

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a key factor in tropical cyclone development — waters above 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) provide the heat energy that fuels storms, with waters reaching 29–30 °C (84–86 °F) creating conditions where hurricanes can rapidly intensify. The 7-day composite shows the latest SST analysis for the Atlantic Main Development Region, while the 30-day animation reveals how temperatures have been trending across the Caribbean.

Sea Surface Temps – 7-day Composite

Sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Atlantic Main Development Region, where the majority of Cape Verde-type hurricanes form and intensify. Waters warmer than 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) provide the energy needed to sustain tropical cyclones. The warmer and deeper the warm water pool, the greater the potential for rapid intensification. During hurricane season, this image helps identify pockets of anomalously warm water that could fuel approaching tropical disturbances.

Sea Surface Temps – 7-day Composite

Image courtesy of NASA SPoRT.

Sea Surface Temps – Last 30 days

Shows how ocean surface temperatures have changed across the Caribbean over the past 30 days. During hurricane season, watch for unusually warm patches (deep reds and oranges), which can signal areas where approaching storms may strengthen significantly. Outside of hurricane season, SST trends help indicate the onset of warmer waters and the transition into the active period.

Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature 30-day animation (click play to start)

Animation courtesy of NOAA.

Information on this page is updated according to the National Hurricane Center’s bulletin schedule. Satellite imagery refreshes approximately every 10 minutes.

The Eastern Caribbean Forecast is updated at least daily, year‑round, and more frequently whenever new discussions are issued.

The Tropical Weather Outlook section follows the NHC’s scheduled outlooks (four times daily from May 15 to November 30) and is hidden during the off‑season unless the NHC issues a special outlook.